Forest dynamics and afforestation efficacy in the south-western Aral Sea Basin: a multi-decadal satellite observation approach

Kipshakbaeva Gaukhar Adilbaevna; Berdimbetov Timur Tleubergenovich; Mamutov Bakhram Khojaniyazovich

doi:10.66073/ReFocus-Conf/1610106

ARTICLE 2026 Vol 1 · No 7 EN d0bff5ea61de

Forest dynamics and afforestation efficacy in the south-western Aral Sea Basin: a multi-decadal satellite observation approach

Динамика лесов и эффективность лесоразведения в юго-западной части бассейна Аральского моря: подход на основе спутниковых наблюдений за несколько десятилетий | Orol dengizi havzasining janubi-g‘arbiy qismida o‘rmonlar dinamikasi va o‘rmon barpo etish samaradorligi: bir necha o‘n yillik sun’iy yo‘ldosh kuzatuvlariga asoslangan yondashuv

Kipshakbaeva Gaukhar Adilbaevna Karakalpak Institute of Agriculture and Agrotechnologies
Berdimbetov Timur Tleubergenovich Nukus State Technical University
Mamutov Bakhram Khojaniyazovich Forestry Research Institute

Partner conferences of the International Scientific Journal Research Focus, 1(7), 400–404

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Abstract

This study analyzes the transformation of forest ecosystems in the Republic of Karakalpakstan during 2000-2024 using modern information technologies — remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and artificial intelligence algorithms. The study employs the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, the Python programming language, QGIS, and ArcGIS Pro. Land cover classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm on Landsat 7/8/9 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Transfer matrix and intensity analysis methods were used to quantify forest-land cover transitions. Forecast maps for 2030–2040 were generated using the CA-Markov model. Results show that tugai forests decreased by 32% and saxaul forests by 19% during 2000–2024, while saline areas expanded by 50%. Classification accuracy reached 91.3% (Kappa = 0.88). Under the BAU scenario, tugai forests are projected to decline by an additional 38% by 2040.

Keywords

Karakalpakstan Remote Sensing GEE Random Forest CA-Markov Tugai forest Saxaul

How to cite

Kipshakbaeva Gaukhar Adilbaevna; Berdimbetov Timur Tleubergenovich; Mamutov Bakhram Khojaniyazovich (2026). Forest dynamics and afforestation efficacy in the south-western Aral Sea Basin: a multi-decadal satellite observation approach. Partner conferences of the International Scientific Journal Research Focus, 1(7), 400–404. https://doi.org/10.66073/ReFocus-Conf/1610106

Identifier: https://rf-library.uz/article/d0bff5ea61de/forest-dynamics-and-afforestation-efficacy-in-the-south-western-aral-sea-basin
DOI: 10.66073/ReFocus-Conf/1610106
Licence: Copyright (c) 2026 Karakalpak Institute of Agriculture and Agrotechnologies; Authors
Publisher: LLC Ilm-fan va innovatsiyalar akademiyasi
Added to repository: 2026-11-03