Modern modeling approaches to assessing the impact of climate change on macroeconomic stability

The article analyzes modern modeling approaches used to assess the impact of climate change on macroeconomic stability. In particular, the theoretical features, advantages and limitations of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and of Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE), Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) models are compared. Based on an analysis of international experience, the article substantiates the difficulty of fully capturing the effects of climate shocks on economic growth, sectors, public finance and the external sector within a single model. A methodological approach is proposed for using complementary models to assess the macroeconomic impact of climate risks in the context of Uzbekistan.

В статье проанализированы современные подходы к моделированию, применяемые при оценке влияния изменения климата на макроэкономическую стабильность. В частности, проведено сравнительное исследование теоретических особенностей, преимуществ и ограничений моделей Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE), Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) и Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). На основе анализа международного опыта обоснована сложность полного охвата в рамках одной модели воздействия климатических шоков на экономический рост, отрасли, государственные финансы и внешний сектор. Предложен методологический подход к использованию взаимодополняющих моделей при оценке макроэкономического воздействия климатических рисков в условиях Узбекистана.

Maqolada iqlim o‘zgarishlarining makroiqtisodiy barqarorlikka ta’sirini baholashda qo‘llaniladigan zamonaviy modellashtirish yondashuvlari tahlil qilingan. Xususan, Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE), Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) hamda Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) modellarining nazariy xususiyatlari, afzalliklari va cheklovlari qiyosiy o‘rganilgan. Xalqaro tajriba tahlili asosida iqlim shoklarining iqtisodiy o‘sish, tarmoqlar, davlat moliyasi va tashqi sektorga ta’sirini bir model doirasida to‘liq qamrab olish murakkabligi asoslangan. O‘zbekiston sharoitida iqlim xavflarining makroiqtisodiy ta’sirini baholashda bir-birini to‘ldiruvchi modellardan foydalanish bo‘yicha metodologik yondashuv taklif etilgan.